Business Analysis and Modeling Skills with Excel and Palisade @RISK
Executives, managers and analysts are facing increasing pressure to make good decisions with data from their ERP, CRM, Data warehouse or Bi solution that result in improved performance. In this 2 day workshop, participants will learn simple and effective techniques/skills and tools to improve decision making using Palisade @RISK in 4 key areas: Finance, Operations, Risk and Project Management. In each topic, participants will discover how to use @RISK’s simulation and optimization tools to make decisions and assess risk in day-to-day situations as well as planning for building complex models.
Through workshops, case examples and practical @RISK learning models, participants will actively learn and practice essential skills and techniques to obtain accurate estimates from subject matter experts, test & validate planning assumptions, leverage historical data in planning/estimating scenarios, assign a probability of realizing an objective, maximize benefits using optimization, etc. – A must for executives, managers, consultants and analysts who can’t afford to be wrong!
- Business Analysts
MODULE 1 – WELCOME TO @RISK
What is @RISK?
- Who uses @RISK?
- @RISK performance quick hits
- @RISK Success Stories
@RISK Monte-Carlo simulation?
- Workshop: What does 95% confidence mean?
- Overview and history of Monte-Carlo Method (MCM)
- Review of basic statistical concepts and definitions within @RISK, including: variance, common distributions, sensitivity analysis, etc.
- Overview of @RISK Interface, tools and functionalities including Risk Optimizer and @RISK Predictor
- Setting Objectives
- Properly scoping the need, building assumptions and establishing model constraints with Subject Matter Experts
- Workshop: Establishing planning and adjustment assumptions
- Bottom-Up Estimating
- The Delphi Method: Clarifying & validating planning assumptions (& risks) with Subject Matter Experts
- Obtaining and using historical or published data
- Workshop: Clarifying working assumptions with stakeholders
MODULE 2 – RISK ANALYSIS USING @RISK
Model Building Basics
- Tornado Analysis to identify model variables
- Picking the right distributions and defining them in @RISK
- Forecasts - Identifying and defining what we want to analyze
- Fitting Probability Distribution using Historical Data
- Making sure your model behaves correctly using correlation
- Workshop: Building a 123 Model
Running the model
- Optimizing the number of trials
- Establishing Confidence Intervals
- Visualizing Results and Charts (Sensitivity, Forecasts, Assumptions and Overlays)
- Generating @RISK Reports
Risk identification and Assessment using @RISK
- Interpreting Forecasts and Sensitivity Analysis
- Identifying Risks and Potential Mitigation Strategies
- Model Calibration using Risk Management Mitigation Solutions
Communicating Results to the business
- What your boss Wants to Know: Incorporating key information from @RISK into presentations and reports
- Techniques to effectively and simply presenting your analysis
- Question handling
- Workshop: Presenting effectively to your boss
MODULE 3 - FINANCE
Sales and Demand Forecasting
- Time-series projections using @RISK Predictor to easily incorporate Seasonality, Smoothing algorithms, Growth Projections using historical data
- Workshop: Projecting Next Year’s Sales
Portfolio Management Optimization Techniques
- Modeling Efficient Frontier Analysis to optimize risk against benefit for projects and investments.
- Project Selection: Use Risk Optimizer to pick the best projects based on Organizational Budget Constraints
- Portfolio & Resource Allocation Optimization: Allocate resources or budgets among various investments to maximize NPV or ROI or minimize risk or expense.
- ROI Analysis using historical data to build ROI Scenarios and compare them using Overlay Charts
MODULE 4 – IMPROVING OPERATIONS USING @RISK
- The Theory of Constraints – What is keeping you from getting the most out of your operations?
- Translating a Process into a @RISK Model (Production, Administrative or Operating)
- Process optimization using Risk Optimizer
Inventory and Supplier Management
- Identifying optimal order quantities
- Reducing Holding Costs using Risk Optimizer
- Calculating the impact of unreliable suppliers on inventory system
- Use Monte-Carlo Method to monitory supplier billing on large projects.
MODULE 5 - PROJECT MANAGEMENT USING @RISK
Project Management Essentials
- Using labor contingency models and calculations : Estimating Effort, Duration and Work:
- Applying the Theory of Constraints: Critical Path vs. Critical Chain
- Taking variance into account in Project Management
- Monte-Carlo for simulating project scheduling outcomes
- Identifying and mitigating project and program risks using sensitivity analysis
- Project Crashing – Optimizing
- Group Workshop : Optimizing critical path and reducing project risk
At the end of this 2 day workshop, participants will be able to:
- Understand and apply Monte-Carlo simulation and optimization in their day-to-day activities
- Make better and more informed decisions
- Quickly build effective models or customize existing ones with @RISK
- Apply simple and effective @RISK Risk Management Techniques
- Improve financial and operational performance by applying @RISK
- Pick and manage project more effectively