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    Project Risk Analysis & Modelling Skills with Excel + Oracle Crystal Ball (16hr | Online)

    Online workshop to learn advanced Excel techniques, Monte Carlo simulation and risk management, develop advanced simulation spreadsheet models, analyze and present results.

    SKU: TP-RT116-ENA
    $2,199.00
    i h

    PROJECT RISK ANALYSIS AND MODELLING SKILLS

     

    OVERVIEW

    If you need to calculate the odds of delivering on-time or on budget, the only way is through probabilistic project risk analysis.
    Using Oracle Crystal Ball or Palisade’s @RISK, participants will learn simple and effective quantitative modelling techniques/skills and tools to calculate the odds of success using Monte-Carlo Simulation. Focused on project risk analysis, participants will discover how to use Monte-Carlo simulation and optimization tools to make decisions and assess risk in day-to-day situations as well as planning for building complex models & forecasts.

    This workshop is designed for both the beginner and advanced business analyst and we will fully cover the A to Z of applying risk analysis techniques and modelling best practices to CAPEX Cost Estimates, Project Schedules and Discounted Casflows.
     

    WORKSHOP CONTENT


    MODULE 1 – Enhancing the modeling process with simulation

    Why is Risk Analysis critically important in today’s world?

    • Making decisions under uncertainty
    • Where risk analysis and simulation integrate with the planning process
    • The flaw of averages:  Why 70%+ projects fail to deliver on expectations
    • Understanding risk analysis key concepts and definitions
    • Workshop: What does 90% confidence really mean?

    Modeling vs. Simulation

    • Overview and history of Monte-Carlo Simulation
    • Advantages and Disadvantages of simulation
    • How and Where predictive modelling and risk analysis can have a positive impact on the organization

    The Modeling Process

    • Modelling best practices for formating and organizing spreasheet models to be clear and easily auditable.
    • Sourcing and using historical or published data
    • Discussion on using the Monte-Carlo Method for properly scoping the need, building assumptions and establishing model constraints with Subject Matter Experts
    • Workshop: Using risk analysis to develop a New Compensation Model

    Using and Configuring Crystal Ball for Risk Analysis: Toolbar, Basic Terminology, Sampling, Reporting and Data Extraction


    Module 2 – Building and Running Models

    Essential Statistics For Risk Modeling

    • Workshop: Understanding how probabilities work with the DICE model
    • Basic probability statistics (Mean, Standard Deviation, Kurtosis, Skewness)
    • Overview of principal distributions and when to use them
    • How Multi-Modal distributions are generated

    Tornado Charts and One Way Sensitivity Analysis

    • Analyze existing models to identify  inputs with the greatest impact.
    • Spider-Charts vs Tornado Charts
    • Workshop: Analyzing variables to model in a Loan Process

    Fundamentals in Project Estimation

    • What is Project Risk Analysis
    • Working defenition of a good project estimate
    • Overestimating vs. Underestimating
    • The difference between: Targets, Commitements, Estimates and Plans.

    Working with Distributions and Model Inputs

    • Best practices for defining model inputs in Excel and selecting the right distribution
    • Continuous vs. Discrete Distributions
    • Comparing risk profiles:
    • How to correctly ask for ranges
    • Using Custom Distributions
    • Workshop:  How different distributions compare using the same input parameters.

    Defining, Analyzing and Communicating results to the business

    • Setting up model outputs and visualizing results and charts (Sensitivity, Forecasts, Assumptions and Overlays)
    • Establishing Confidence Intervals and configuring precision control  to optimize the number of trials
    • Generating simulation result reports & documentation
    • Techniques to effectively and simply communicate your analysis to your peers, clients and superiors
    • Question handling

    Project Risk identification and Assessment using Simulation

    • Interpreting Forecasts and Sensitivity Analysis
    • Using Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate project contigencies.
    • Discussion on how to correctly organize risks into schedule, cost and market models.
    • Workshop: Schedule Risk Analysis
    • Workshop: Analyzing Cost Estimates with conditional costs and discrete risk registries.  


    Module 3 – Incorporating Historical Data and Trends into your SIMULATION Models

    Correlation and Regression

    • What are correlations and their impact on results
    • Making sure your model behaves correctly using correlation
    • 3 techniques to calculate correlation and their differences.
    • Overview of regression and its basic applications
    • Discussion on the how Monte-Carlo simulation works.
    • Workshop: How to calculate rank correlation and use it to correlate model assumptions
    • Aggregate Assumptions

    Data/Distribution Fitting

    • How to research which distributions you should fit.
    • Best practices on how to source and fit historical data using statisitical methods.
    • Analyzing fit results and selecting the RIGHT distribution for both univariate and multivariate data.

    Time-Series Forecasting

    • Forecasting vs. stress-testing your model over time.
    • Overview of the components and applications of time-series forecasting
    • Univariate Forecasting using Geometric Brownian Motion by calculating historical trend and volatility. (Escalation/Inflation Models)
    • Time-series projections using to easily incorporate Seasonality, Smoothing algorithms, Growth Projections using historical data
    • Workshop: Projecting Next Year’s Sales using CB Predictor.
    • Workshop: Building Correlated Forecasts using Multiple Linear Regression using CB Predictor.


    Module 4 – Optimization and Scenario Modeling

    Simulation Optimization

    • Introduction to Simulation - Optimization with OptQuest
    • Everyday Optimization applications and examples
    Portfolio Optimization Techniques : With the help of several integrated financial models, this workshop will provide financial analysts with a complete understanding of why, where and how to apply spreadsheet forecasting, simulation, real options and optimization within their analyses.
    • Project Portfolio Selection: Use OptQuest to pick the best projects based on Organizational Budget Constraints
    • Portfolio & Resource Allocation Optimization: Allocate resources or budgets among various investments to maximize NPV or ROI or minimize risk or expense.
    • Modeling Efficient Frontier Analysis to optimize risk against benefit for projects and investments. (Portfolio Allocation)
    Decision Tables to compare complex 2 dimensional problems
    • Workshop: Inventory Options
    • Workshop: Oil Field Development Strategies
    • Creating 3D solution plots

     
    BENEFITS

    At the end of this 16hr workshop, participants will be able to:
    • Understand and apply Monte-Carlo simulation and optimization in their day-to-day activities.
    • Quickly build effective models or customize existing ones with Crystal Ball or Palisade @RISK.
    • Pick and manage project more effectively
    • Use Monte-Carlo-Simulation to calculate risk based contigencies for projects and schedules.
    • Clearly explain how Monte-Carlo simulation works and how its results should be interpreted.


    PRE-PAID REMOTE TRAINING

    Our workshops last 16hrs / 24hrs and are delivered, one-on-one, in 2 hour sessions at your convenience. Just call to book the times that work best in your schedule. Each 16 hour remote training program is billed at 2,199.00$ and 24hrs at 3,175.00$ USD   Our remote and onsite training topics for Crystal Ball, Primavera Risk Analysis, RiskSolver, Julia, @RISK and ModelRisk include:   Visit https://store.technologypartnerz.com/risk-and-business-analysis-trainingfor a complete list